In June, Bud Light was no longer the top-selling beer in the United States, replaced by Modelo Especial from Mexico.

As of June 3, Modelo was the most sold beer brand in the U.S., accounting for 8.4% of all beer sales in retail stores, according to data from Bump Williams, a consulting firm. Bud Light was No. 2 at 7.3%. According to the data, Bud Light has been the best-selling beer in convenience stores in the United States since 2001, which is the first time that the beer has been no. 1 in retail stores.

According to data provided by consulting firms Bump Williams and Nielsen IQ, sales of Bud Light and Budweiser increased by 24.4% and 9.2%, respectively, in the four weeks ending June 3. Modelo beer sales increased by 12.2%.

Modelo Group is a large brewing company from Mexico, founded in 1925, its brands in the Mexican beer market share of 63%, and imports beer to many countries around the world. Many of the group’s brands are sold in 180 countries around the world, including the well-known brand Corona.

Budweiser Beer is owned by AB InBev (AB InBev), a multinational beer manufacturing group headquartered in Leuven, Belgium, which was formed on November 18, 2008 by the merger of two major alcohol groups, InBev in Belgium and Anheuser-Busch in the United States.

It is worth noting that the figures do not include sales from restaurants and pubs. However, David Steinman, managing editor of Beer Marketer’s Insights, noted that Modelo’s sales in restaurants have been growing rapidly, while Bud Light’s sales from restaurants and bars have been colder than retail stores since it hit a rough spot in April.

Modro’s sales have been boosted by the fact that Bud Light has suffered and lost market share. Bud Light in April this year to celebrities, Internet celebrities free beer, asking them to share a bottle of social media to promote. Among them, transgender celebrity Dylan Mulvaney triggered conservative discontent for the promotion of beer, and chose to resist Bud Light, which triggered a sales climax.

Jon Reynolds, a certified craft beer business instructor at the University of Vermont, said Budweiser Light therefore has the opportunity to usurp market share, and Miller Lite, Coors Light and Modelo will get the majority of the market share.

On the other hand, the good performance of Modelo beer has nothing to do with multiple factors such as the announcement of new products and the role of seasons. Bump Williams, a consulting firm, told CNN: “With the arrival of summer, sales of Modelo seem to be increasing every week.” The official added that Modelo’s new low-carb beer, Modelo Oro, was prominently displayed after its initial announcement in May, further boosting the brand’s sales.

In recent years, consumers have begun to shift their preference from beer to Mexican beers and spirits, such as tequila and mezcal. According to Williams, Modelo was the best-selling beer in May for a number of reasons, including strong retailer support, lackluster advertising, and eye-catching packaging.

Modelo beer, which has been well represented in the United States, is not only ambitious, it is expanding its global trade and recently launched in China. According to the material, the beer was launched on the Jingdong self-operated platform on May 1, and officially announced on the new day of Jingdong supermarket on May 15, seizing Chinese shopping malls.

In the beer war for market share, however, it is hard to see who is winning. Public materials show that in 2013, AB InBev had full control of the Mexican Modro group, and then reached an agreement with the United States anti-control agency to sell Modelo’s business in the United States to Constellation groups.

At present, AB InBev still owns 50% of the Modelo group in Mexico. Even if Bud Light falls from the pedestal in the United States in the short term, the good embodiment of Modelo beer will still benefit AB InBev.

Recently, El Nino signs have affected large areas around the world. According to the UN Food and Agricultural Structural Materials, agriculture is one of the major economic sectors that can be severely affected by El Nino symptoms. The weather conditions of heavy rain, flooding, and extreme heat or cold caused by El Nino symptoms can lead to outbreaks of animal diseases as well as animal pests and bush fires.

Specifically for beer, Barclays analysts believe that El Nino signs will cause beer prices to fall. In particular, El Nino will drive up the price of wheat and barley, as well as the price of sugar, which is used to make fizzy drinks. Looking at historical materials, the FAO Structure Food price Index declines on average 16 months after the onset of El Nino symptoms. In terms of brands, Barclays analysts said AB InBev, Nur and soft drinks maker Britvic were likely to feel the most inflationary pressure.

It is worth noting that even if the price of beer falls, there is still room for promotion at the end of consumption demand, and beer does not see the situation of rising quality and price. Focusing on China’s shopping malls, open source securities analysts believe that in April to go, low base superimposed under the construction of catering scenes need to be promoted, beer production quality deleted 21.1%. To see throughout the year, due to the construction of the catering scene, the need to wake up, beer still does not see to maintain a high prosperity.

On the other hand, successive El Nino signs can also be an important catalyst for beer sales. The temperature rises from June to August every year, which is usually the off-season for conservative beer sales, and the holding of summer beer festivals, music festivals and other sports provides a consumption scene for the public. This year, with the continuous low temperature weather and the return of travel due to the fading of the epidemic, the beverage market, including beer, will be in a high boom.

Although the El Nino phenomenon can affect the supply of brewing raw materials, resulting in a decrease in beer prices, the breakdown cost income of wine companies is relatively optimistic, and the revenue of cash is not reduced. Huatai Securities analysts pointed out that in 2023, although the purchase price of barley is still at a high level, but the price of aluminum cans, cartons and other packaging materials is falling, the decomposition cost pressure of liquor enterprises has slowed down significantly compared with 22 years, Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer are estimated that the ton cost of enterprises in 23 years is flat to a low single digit deletion, which is significantly improved compared with 22 years.

Globally, the beer market continues to be bullish. According to the “2023 Craft Beer Industry Research Statement” released by Jauding Consulting, the annual composite deletion rate of the global craft beer market scope will reach 11.2% before it goes to 8 years, and it is estimated that the beer market scope will be higher than 1.7 trillion yuan by 2030.

Overall, the El Nino signs will be able to affect the price of beer from the material side, but the low temperature weather, the recovery of the market and the improvement of the cost of the combined impact, do not see the off-season beer sales and cost caused a positive catalyst.